Is the Crypto Bull Run Over? Why Fear Is Spiking — and What Comes Next for Bitcoin and Altcoins

The crypto market is in full panic mode.

Fear and Greed is sitting at 10 — a level we haven’t seen since the darkest days of the 2022 bear market.
Altcoins are getting crushed.
Sentiment is collapsing.
And everywhere you look, people are asking the same question:

“Is the bull market over?”

In this article, we break down:

• What the charts really say

• Why altcoins are suffering more than Bitcoin

• The macro forces that will decide the next major move

• How to think about contingencies, risk, and timing

• And whether we’re in a temporary downturn… or something bigger

Let’s dive in.

WARNING! Has the Crypto Bubble Popped?

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📉 Fear Is Back: Only 16% of Altcoins Are Above Their 200-Day MA

If you feel like everyone is underwater on their bags — you’re right.

Only 16% of altcoins are trading above their 200-day moving average.

That means:

• 84% of altcoins are below their long-term trend

• Most retail investors are sitting on losses

• Sentiment is bottoming out because portfolios are bleeding

This is exactly what happens near local lows.
Fear increases because most of the market is down.

But fear alone doesn’t tell the whole story.

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⛓ Why the 4-Year Cycle Is Breaking Down

For years, traders relied on the “4-year Bitcoin cycle” like gospel:

• Halving → Reduced supply

• Renewed demand → Bull market

• Cycle resets every 48 months

But here’s the truth:
Supply alone can’t drive a cycle.

You can have the most scarce asset on earth — but without demand, price doesn’t move.

NFT mania proved this perfectly:

• Scarcity = 10,000 items per collection

• Tons of demand → insane valuations

• Demand evaporated → prices collapsed

• Scarcity stayed the same

Scarcity does nothing without liquidity and demand.

That’s the missing link most people ignore.

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🌎 The REAL Driver: Global Liquidity and the Business Cycle

Altcoins don’t pump just because Bitcoin halves.

They pump when liquidity expands and consumers have money to spend.

Here’s the key:

Every major altcoin season in history occurred when the global business cycle moved from contraction → expansion.

When this happens:

• Monetary easing starts

• Borrowing gets cheaper

• Consumers spend more

• Risk assets pump

• Altcoins explode

The chart tells the story:

✔ When the business cycle breaks above the midpoint → altcoins surge
✘ When below the midpoint → altcoins bleed

And we’ve been stuck below that midpoint since late 2022.

That’s why altcoins have struggled — not because the halving “failed.”

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📈 When Will Liquidity Return?

This is the most important question in crypto today.

What we know so far:

✔ 84% of global central banks are already cutting rates

This is a major macro tailwind.

✔ Once the Fed pivots, credit loosens

More borrowing → more spending → more liquidity.

✔ Expansion phases typically begin fast

Business cycles run in 4–5-year waves.

✔ The U.S. election, tariffs, and fiscal stimulus all align with a big liquidity wave

Political pressure = more spending, more money, more risk appetite.

All signs point to massive liquidity returning — but not yet.

Most forecasts point to Q1 2026 as the beginning of the next major expansion.

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🚨 But Short-Term? Crypto Shows Real Weakness

There are legitimate bearish signals appearing:

• Bitcoin is close to closing below the 1-year moving average

• RSI is flashing bearish divergence

• MACD is forming a bearish cross

• Whales (1–10K BTC) have been distributing

• Sentiment is historically fearful

• Many altcoins are down 50–80%

Crypto-specific indicators support a short-term corrective phase.

But there’s nuance.

Ultra-whales (10K+ BTC) are still accumulating heavily.

And historically, when retail panics while mega-whales buy, the trend reverses violently.

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📉 Should You Panic Sell? Here’s the Truth

This is where personal contingencies matter.

If you’re down 50% on your altcoin portfolio:

• Panic selling now means locking in losses

• Missing the macro reversal could cost you far more

• Altcoins move violently when liquidity returns

• It only takes a few weeks for a coin to 3x–5x

Example:
ICP went from $3 → $10 in less than 3 weeks during a bearish period.

Altcoins have extremely thin liquidity.
They don’t need billions of dollars to move — just a spark.

That’s why many investors choose to stay positioned despite short-term pain.

But that’s a personal decision.

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🧠 Create Your Contingency Plan

Here’s a simple framework:

Bull Market On (3 Signs)

If these happen, the cycle is back:

1. Two consecutive weekly closes above the 1-year moving average

2. Liquidity expansion begins (Fed cuts, repo injections, credit loosening)

3. Altcoin dominance rises above its midpoint

Bear Market On (3 Signs)

If these appear, reduce risk:

1. Two weekly closes below the 1-year MA

2. Sharp decline in global liquidity indicators

3. Whales begin massive distribution

Everyone’s risk tolerance is different.
But having a plan removes emotional decision-making.

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🟡 My Personal View: Cautiously Optimistic

Here’s the balanced take:

Short-term:
✔ Crypto can drop lower
✔ Indicators show weakness
✔ Fear could spike even more

Mid-term:
✔ Sideways until liquidity returns
✔ Opportunities for accumulation
✔ False bottoms are likely

Long-term:
✔ Macro expansion → explosive altcoin season
✔ Fed pivot → risk-on rally
✔ 2026 could be the strongest year of the cycle

This is not 2018.
This is not a full bear market.
This is a liquidity-driven slowdown inside a larger bull cycle.

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📢 Final Thoughts — Stay Smart, Not Scared

In times like these:

• Fear feels real

• Altcoins bleed fast

• Social sentiment turns extreme

• Everyone claims the bull run is over

But historically, these moments create the best opportunities.

The game is not about predicting every dip.

It’s about understanding where we are in the macro liquidity cycle — and positioning accordingly.

Stay cautious.
Stay patient.
Stay aware.
And above all…

Stay ready for when liquidity returns — because altcoins can rewrite your portfolio in weeks.