Steel Deals in a “Hidden Bear Market”: What’s Cheap, What’s a Trap, and What I’m Buying

The weirdest part about markets right now is the disconnect.

If you pull up MarketWatch and glance at the S&P 500, you’d think everything’s fine. The index is only a couple percent off all-time highs. No panic. No collapse. Nothing dramatic.

But under the surface? It’s a completely different story.

There are quality companies down 30%, 40%, 60%, even 80%. Plenty of crypto assets are down the same. It’s one of those environments where the headline index looks calm, while individual names are getting absolutely destroyed.

That’s exactly when “steel deals” show up—real value—and when value traps start looking tempting.

So let’s walk through what’s cheap, what’s maybe cheap but not worth it, what the market is actually afraid of right now, and the buying approach that makes sense when volatility is doing its thing.

The Market Reality: “Index Up, Stocks Down”

This is the kind of tape that messes with people psychologically.

The S&P 500 looks strong.
Meanwhile, dozens of recognizable companies are down hard.
Crypto is taking punches at the same time.

That combination creates confusion:

“If the market is fine, why is everything I watch bleeding?”
“Should I buy dips?”
“Is this the start of a bigger unwind?”

It’s not unusual for an index to stay propped up by a handful of mega-caps while the average stock gets crushed. That’s why you can’t judge the market purely by the S&P headline.

What “Cheap” Actually Means (And What It Doesn’t)

A stock being down 70% doesn’t automatically mean it’s a bargain.

Cheap can be:

Valuation collapsed while the business keeps growing
The market fears a narrative that hasn’t hit earnings
Multiple compression (P/E or cash flow multiple falling) without fundamental collapse

Cheap can also be a trap:

Revenue stagnant
User growth stalled
The “buyback” is masking a business that’s not improving
The industry is structurally changing

The goal is to identify which is which.

Case Study: Adobe — Down Big While the Business Keeps Growing

Adobe is a clean example of “multiple compression.”

Even while:

revenue has been consistently rising over the years
earnings per share has increased
the company has aggressively bought back shares

…the stock is down dramatically from the 2021 peak.

What happened?

The market isn’t saying “Adobe is failing today.”
The market is saying “We’re not willing to pay premium multiples for software anymore.”

And one major reason: AI fear.

Investors are pricing in the idea that:

“AI will replace software products, destroy moats, and make it easy to replicate an Adobe-like suite.”

But here’s the missing piece in that fear trade:

Businesses aren’t just code.

Distribution matters.
Brand matters.
Enterprise relationships matter.
Customer support matters.
Workflow integration matters.
Compliance matters.
Trust matters.

And importantly: we haven’t seen AI materially crush these companies’ earnings yet.

So when you see high-quality software names trading at historically low multiples while earnings haven’t fallen apart, that’s where value starts getting interesting.

Case Study: PayPal — “Cheap” on P/E, But Stagnant Under the Hood

PayPal is a different kind of cheap.

It looks “insanely cheap” on valuation metrics:

low P/E
huge buyback potential
strong cash generation

But the business story has problems:

active account growth has been flat for years
net income has been relatively stagnant
EPS growth is being helped by buybacks more than business acceleration

That doesn’t mean PayPal can’t work.
It means it’s not the same type of “deal” as a growing business whose multiple got crushed.

Rule of thumb:

If the company can restart growth, “cheap” becomes very powerful.
If the company stays stagnant, the stock can stay cheap for a long time.

That’s why some things are “cheap” but not necessarily worth buying.

When Great Earnings Still Get You Crushed: AMD’s “Beat and Dump”

One of the clearest signals that markets are in a tough mood is when a company:

beats EPS
beats revenue
shows strong year-over-year growth
…and the stock still drops double digits.

That tells you the market is playing a different game:

expectations were even higher
forward guidance was “good” but not “perfect”
investors are de-risking and punishing anything that isn’t flawless

This is exactly how you get broad pockets of destruction while the index looks okay.

The AI Narrative Is Driving a Lot of the Panic

Software and “SaaS” names are getting hit because the market is trying to front-run disruption.

The fear is simple:

“AI will make it easier to build competitors”
“AI will compress pricing power”
“AI will reduce switching costs”

But again, the key point is:
there hasn’t been a clear earnings collapse across the board.

So you’re left with a question:

Is this a real fundamental shift already happening… or is this fear overshooting?

When fear overshoots, deals appear.

How I’d Think About Buying Right Now (Without Trying to Be a Hero)

This is not the environment to go “all in” emotionally on a single narrative.

It’s the environment to:

dollar-cost average
keep cash flexibility
buy quality first
avoid heavy leverage, especially in altcoins

1) The S&P 500 as the “Capital Parking Lot”

Even if it’s not screaming cheap, broad index exposure can be a smart “home base,” especially if you want something resilient while you wait for better entries elsewhere.

2) Buying High-Quality Winners When They’re Not Loved

Examples of the kind of logic that can work:

dominant platforms
strong free cash flow
durable demand
ability to cut spending if needed
proven execution

Even if they don’t pop tomorrow, they’re businesses you can hold without losing sleep.

3) Individual Stocks: Focus on Business Strength + Valuation Reset

A smart “deal” is typically:

still growing
still profitable (or with a clear path)
beaten down mostly by sentiment or multiples, not collapsing fundamentals

Crypto: Bitcoin Yes, Altcoins Not Yet

On the crypto side, the approach gets simpler:

Bitcoin

DCA into Bitcoin (or ETFs) can make sense as a long-term strategy
if volatility deepens, you’re still accumulating something with historic cycle resilience

Leverage

If you’re using leverage at all:

keep it low
expect volatility
plan entries like a “ladder” rather than a single perfect bottom call

Altcoins

Altcoins can be dangerous in extended drawdowns because:

many won’t recover
narratives rotate
liquidity disappears
leverage gets punished harder

Even if a coin like Solana looks “oversold,” trying to time altcoin bottoms with leverage is where people get wrecked.

The Opportunity Most People Miss

The secret advantage in a market like this is psychological:

When people feel pain, they stop thinking clearly.
They start anchoring to old prices (“it used to be $X!”).
They panic sell into weakness.
Or they all-in on “cheap” without checking whether the business is actually improving.

The better play:

stay systematic
buy quality gradually
let volatility work for you instead of against you

If you’re the kind of person who can wake up and see red—and calmly execute your plan—you’re already ahead of most market participants.

Final Thought: There Are Deals… But Earn Them With a System

Yes, there are steel deals out there.

But the way you capture them isn’t by guessing the bottom.

It’s by:

DCA into strength
keeping optionality
avoiding over-leverage
separating “cheap” from “worth buying”

And most importantly:

knowing what you own and why you own it.

Not financial advice. Do your own research.

Steel Deals in a “Hidden Bear Market”: What’s Cheap, What’s a Trap, and What I’m Buying